Welfare Dynamics in Colombia: Results from Synthetic Panels

42 Pages Posted: 15 May 2018 Last revised: 18 May 2018

See all articles by Carlos Felipe Balcazar

Carlos Felipe Balcazar

New York University (NYU) - Department of Politics

Hai-Anh Dang

World Bank - Development Data Group (DECDG); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Indiana University Bloomington - School of Public & Environmental Affairs (SPEA); Global Labor Organization (GLO); Vietnam National University Ha Noi; Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) - Centre for Analysis and Forecasting

Eduardo A Malasquez

World Bank

Sergio Daniel Olivieri

World Bank

Julieth Pico

World Bank

Date Written: May 14, 2018

Abstract

This study explores the short-run transitions between poverty, vulnerability, and middle class, using synthetic panels constructed from multiple rounds of Colombia's Integrated Household Survey (in Spanish Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares). The paper reports results from two approaches to define a vulnerability line: the first one employs a nonparametric and parsimonious model, while the second utilizes a fully parametric regression model with covariates. The estimation results suggest a range of between $8 to $13 per day per person in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars as the vulnerability line. Using an average daily vulnerability line of $10 per day per person, subsequent estimates on welfare dynamics suggest that, during the past decade, 20 percent of the Colombian population experienced downward mobility, and 24 percent experienced upward mobility. Furthermore, upward mobility increases with higher education levels and is lower for female-headed households.

Keywords: Inequality, Educational Sciences, Poverty Lines, Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping, Poverty Diagnostics, Poverty Monitoring & Analysis, Poverty Impact Evaluation, Poverty Assessment, Gender and Development, Education for Development (superceded), Gender and Education, Access & Equity in Basic Education, Education For All, Educational Populations, Girls & #39, Education

Suggested Citation

Balcazar, Carlos Felipe and Dang, Hai-Anh H. and Malasquez, Eduardo A and Olivieri, Sergio Daniel and Pico, Julieth, Welfare Dynamics in Colombia: Results from Synthetic Panels (May 14, 2018). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8441, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3178464

Carlos Felipe Balcazar (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Department of Politics ( email )

New York, NY
United States

Hai-Anh H. Dang

World Bank - Development Data Group (DECDG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MC2-846
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/haianhhdang/

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Indiana University Bloomington - School of Public & Environmental Affairs (SPEA) ( email )

1315 East Tenth Street
Bloomington, IN 47405
United States

Global Labor Organization (GLO) ( email )

Collogne
Germany

Vietnam National University Ha Noi ( email )

Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) - Centre for Analysis and Forecasting ( email )

1 Lieu Giai Street
Hanoi
Vietnam

Eduardo A Malasquez

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Sergio Daniel Olivieri

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Julieth Pico

World Bank

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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