The Future of International Order(s)

Abstract

This article advances three principal projections about the future international order(s). First, the more rule-based international order will persist, but it will be increasingly less West-centric. Second, the shaping of international order will become more bottom-up and contested, rather than mostly top-down and mostly imposed as it used to be. Third, regional orders will become more critical now that the momentum toward an Americanized global order has stalled and may never regain its lost momentum. In this sense, the future international order will become more regionalized and fragmented. If my projection is a valid possibility, its potential implications are profound. To begin with, there will be much more competition for making rules beyond the West, though with less violence. Second, inter-regional coordination and cooperation will become more critical. Third, the notion of the West as a unified bloc may no longer be sufficient or even always productive for moving toward a better governed international order.

Keywords: International order, modernity, post-Western, regionalization