산업연관 관계를 고려한 무역구제조치의 경제적 영향 분석 (Trade Remedy and its Economic Impact in the Model with World Input-Output Linkage)

228 Pages Posted: 20 May 2018

See all articles by Kyu Yub Lee

Kyu Yub Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Moon hee Cho

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Hyeri Park

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Jun-Hyun Eom

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Date Written: December 27, 2017

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 2017년 피터슨 연구소의 보고서는 반덤핑, 상계관세, 세이프가드, 국가안보에 근거하여 미국이 현재 조사 중인 수입규제가 현실화될 경우 적용대상이 되는 한국의 대미 수출품이 7.9%에서 12.2%로 늘어나 중국을 제치고 한국이 가장 큰 피해를 보는 국가가 될 것이라고 예상하고 있다. 본 연구는 무역구제조치의 경제적 영향 분석 시 기존의 부분균형 접근방식으로부터 탈피하여 일반균형 관점에서 새롭게 무역구제조치의 경제적 효과를 분석하였다. 아울러 무역구제조치와 관련된 최근 데이터를 업데이트하여 현황을 정리하고 특징을 분석하였으며, 제도적 관점에서 최근 미국을 중심으로 두드러지는 무역구제조치의 특징을 살펴보았다. 또한, 무역구제조치에 의한 관세상당치를 추정하여 본 연구의 여러 가지 시나리오 분석에서 활용하였다. 우리나라의 중장기 통상정책 및 무역구제조치에 대한 대응방안 수립에 참고할 수 있는 유용한 기초자료로서 사용되기를 바란다.

English Abstract: This study aims to investigate the economic impact of trade remedy in a general equilibrium model with world input-output linkage by quantifying the trade and welfare effects from trade remedy measures. Before examining the economic impact of trade remedy, we investigate the impact of anti-dumping initiations on trade cost by focusing on the steel industry for the last five years. We conduct the fixed-effect as well as PPML estimation in a panel dataset constructed with anti-dumping initiation records, HS 6-digit product-level trade data among 15 countries for the last five years, tariff-lines, usual control variables used in gravity model provided by CEPII, and other relevant variables. We find that anti-dumping initiation in previous year has a negative impact on trade volume in current year. This key result provides a rationale of the study assuming that strengthening trade remedy measures increases trade cost.

Note: Downloadable document in Korean.

Keywords: Trade remedy, economic impact, world input-out linkage

Suggested Citation

Lee, Kyu Yub and Cho, Moon hee and Park, Hyeri and Eom, Jun-Hyun, 산업연관 관계를 고려한 무역구제조치의 경제적 영향 분석 (Trade Remedy and its Economic Impact in the Model with World Input-Output Linkage) (December 27, 2017). KIEP Research Paper. Long-term Trade Strategies Study Series 17-05. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3181752 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3181752

Kyu Yub Lee (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Moon hee Cho

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Hyeri Park

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Jun-Hyun Eom

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

Seoul 137-602

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