Propagation of Housing Market Disruptions During the Great Recession: Supply Chain Network Channel

60 Pages Posted: 15 Jun 2018 Last revised: 3 Oct 2019

See all articles by Jay Hyun

Jay Hyun

Columbia University

Ryan Kim

Johns Hopkins University

Date Written: August 7, 2018

Abstract

This paper investigates a role of supply chain network in transmitting housing market disruptions during the Great Recession. We build up a unique micro-level data that combines local housing market condition, firms' sales in each local market, and firm-level supply chain network information. Exploiting firm-specific demand shock stemming from cross-market variation in house price changes and an initial difference in firms' local sales, we find that such shock not only affects downstream firms but also transmits to their suppliers. The estimated supplier-level elasticity is quantitatively large, reflecting larger role of downstream firms with higher elasticity in the network structure. To quantify such propagation at the aggregate level, we build up a parsimonious network model calibrated to match the micro-level data. Our counterfactual analysis shows that approximately 18% of the observed drop in the aggregate output can be attributed to the propagating role of the supply chain network.

Keywords: Great Recession, housing market, network, supply chain, input-output linkages, propagation

JEL Classification: E23, E32, E44, E60, L14

Suggested Citation

Hyun, Jungsik and Kim, Ryan, Propagation of Housing Market Disruptions During the Great Recession: Supply Chain Network Channel (August 7, 2018). Columbia Business School Research Paper No. 18-63. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3183938 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3183938

Jungsik Hyun (Contact Author)

Columbia University ( email )

New York, NY
United States

Ryan Kim

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

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