Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers

47 Pages Posted: 30 May 2018

See all articles by Michael D. Bordo

Michael D. Bordo

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Klodiana Istrefi

Banque de France

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: May 2018

Abstract

Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. What makes a member a hawk or a dove? What moulds those who change their tune? We highlight ideology by education and early life economic experiences of these members. The Hawk/Dove composition of the FOMC also matters for monetary policy as do the determinants that we isolate. They help explain deviations of the Federal Funds Rate from a forward–looking Taylor rule. This result has implications for the political economy of FOMC appointments. This research is based on an original dataset.

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Suggested Citation

Bordo, Michael D. and Istrefi, Klodiana, Perceived FOMC: The Making of Hawks, Doves and Swingers (May 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w24650. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3185923

Michael D. Bordo (Contact Author)

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics ( email )

New Brunswick, NJ
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Klodiana Istrefi

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

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