New Evidence on the Politics and Economics of Multiparty Cabinets Duration

31 Pages Posted: 8 May 2003

See all articles by Fabrizio Carmignani

Fabrizio Carmignani

UN Economic Commission for Europe - Economic Analysis Division

Abstract

A Proportional Hazards Specification for cabinet duration data is estimated by mean of a flexible parametric approach. The hazard rate is found to be significantly affected by the majority status, the degree of fragmentation and ideological homogeneity of the coalition, the stability and the polarisation of the legislature and the time horizon at the moment of cabinet formation. Interesting innovative results concern the higher stability of cabinets supported by coalitions ideologically closer to the median party and/or left-oriented. The overall state of the economy also has a role. Graphical evidence suggests that the underlying distribution of duration data might be a Gompertz distribution.

Suggested Citation

Carmignani, Fabrizio, New Evidence on the Politics and Economics of Multiparty Cabinets Duration. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 249-279, 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=318747

Fabrizio Carmignani (Contact Author)

UN Economic Commission for Europe - Economic Analysis Division ( email )

Room 441
Palais des Nations
1211 Geneva 10
Switzerland

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