International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries

45 Pages Posted: 8 Jun 2018

See all articles by Isha Agarwal

Isha Agarwal

University of British Columbia

Rupa Duttagupta

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Andrea Presbitero

Johns Hopkins University

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 12, 2018

Abstract

We study the role of the bank-lending channel in propagating fluctuations in commodity prices to credit aggregates and economic activity in developing countries. We use data on more than 1,600 banks from 78 developing countries to analyze the transmission of changes in international commodity prices to domestic bank lending. Identification relies on a bank specific time-varying measure of bank sensitivity to changes in commodity prices, based on daily data on bank stock prices. We find that a fall in commodity prices reduces bank lending, although this effect is confined to low-income countries and driven by commodity price busts. Banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit commodity price changes to lending more aggressively, supporting the hypothesis that the overall credit response to commodity prices works also through the credit supply channel. Our results also show that there is no significant difference in the behavior of foreign and domestic banks in the transmission process, reflecting the regional footprint of foreign banks in developing countries.

Keywords: bank lending, commodity prices, macrofinancial linkages, developing countries

JEL Classification: F30, F34, G21, Q02

Suggested Citation

Agarwal, Isha and Duttagupta, Rupa and Presbitero, Andrea, International Commodity Prices and Domestic Bank Lending in Developing Countries (February 12, 2018). ADBI Working Paper 807, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3191744 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3191744

Isha Agarwal (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia ( email )

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Rupa Duttagupta

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

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Andrea Presbitero

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

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