Time Trends Matter: The Case of Medical Cannabis Laws and Opioid Overdose Mortality
39 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2018 Last revised: 24 Nov 2019
Date Written: November 21, 2019
Abstract
Mortality due to opioid overdoses has been growing rapidly in the U.S., with some states experiencing much steeper increases than others. Legalizing medical cannabis could reduce opioid-related mortality if potential opioid users substitute towards cannabis as a safer alternative. I show, however, that a substantial reduction in opioid-related mortality associated with the implementation of medical cannabis laws can be explained by selection bias. States that legalized medical cannabis exhibit lower pre-existing mortality trends. Accordingly, the mitigating effect of medical cannabis laws on opioid-related mortality vanishes when I include state-specific time trends in state-year-level difference-in-differences regressions.
Keywords: medical cannabis laws, opioid overdose mortality, difference-in-differences, group-specific time trends
JEL Classification: C23, I12, I18, K32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation