Can Protests Expand the Scope of Conflict? Evidence from City Records and Online Activity

Abstract

Pluralism scholars and activists have long theorized that protests can “expand the scope of conflict” by increasing public attention to an issue, but data necessary for a formal causal test has only recently become available. To test this claim, I merge an original dataset of over 400 local protests in three US cities with daily, geo-referenced Google Search data. I show that protests can have a short-term but significant effect on the public’s willingness to actively seek out information related to the protest. To place the effect size in context, I analyze the subset of protests on topics that Pres. Trump also tweeted about. I find that a local protest garners about 60% the amount of public attention as a tweet by the President does on that same topic. Across different cities and different topics, protests can be a powerful tool for activists seeking to engage a larger audience.

Keywords: protests, pluralism, public interest, internet search