Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy

28 Pages Posted: 26 Jun 2018

See all articles by Mauro Caselli

Mauro Caselli

University of Trento - School of International Studies

Andrea Fracasso

University of Trento

Silvio Traverso

University of Trento - School of International Studies

Date Written: May 17, 2018

Abstract

We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994-2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties' political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time-invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far-right parties, whereas only the former has produced a positive effect on the votes of right-wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. On the other hand, neither of them has had an effect on far-left parties. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, the results suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

Keywords: voting, electoral outcomes, trade, import competition, immigration, local labor markets

JEL Classification: D72, F14, F60

Suggested Citation

Caselli, Mauro and Fracasso, Andrea and Traverso, Silvio, Globalization and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from Italy (May 17, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3194705 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3194705

Mauro Caselli (Contact Author)

University of Trento - School of International Studies ( email )

Via Tommaso Gar 14
Trento, Trento 38122
Italy

Andrea Fracasso

University of Trento ( email )

via Inama 5
I-38122 Trento, Trento 38122
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://andrea.fracasso.googlepages.com/andreafracassopersonalhomepage

Silvio Traverso

University of Trento - School of International Studies ( email )

via Verdi 8/10
Trento, Trento 38122
Italy

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