Asymmetry of Individual and Aggregate Inflation Expectations: A Survey

22 Pages Posted: 13 Jun 2018

See all articles by Nikola Mirkov

Nikola Mirkov

Swiss National Bank

Andreas Steinhauer

University of Edinburgh; CEPR

Date Written: July 2018

Abstract

We conducted a simple, anonymous survey at the beginning of 2014, asking around 200 economists worldwide to report their medium‐term expectations about US inflation. A significant share of respondents revealed asymmetric inflation expectations with sizeable deviation from symmetry. We obtain an aggregate distribution that is moderately skewed to the right and show that the aggregate skewness is mostly driven by disagreement among respondents and not by asymmetry of their subjective distributions. In fact, ignoring individual asymmetry changes little in terms of mean and variance of the aggregate distribution.

Suggested Citation

Mirkov, Nikola and Steinhauer, Andreas, Asymmetry of Individual and Aggregate Inflation Expectations: A Survey (July 2018). The Manchester School, Vol. 86, Issue 4, pp. 446-467, 2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3194919 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12190

Nikola Mirkov (Contact Author)

Swiss National Bank ( email )

Borsenstrasse 15
Zurich, 8022
Switzerland

Andreas Steinhauer

University of Edinburgh ( email )

Old College
South Bridge
Edinburgh, Scotland EH8 9JY
United Kingdom

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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