Electrification of Heating and Transport: A Scenario Analysis for the Netherlands Up to 2050

Abstract

The residential and road transport sectors are both major contributors to the emissions of greenhouse gases. In both sectors, electrification may help reduce these emissions. Electrification, however, need not imply that the role of fossil fuels in the economy is reduced. This role is intimately linked to how the electricity will be generated in the future. In particular, natural gas may remain an important source of fossil energy. To what extent this will be the case closely depends on the transition of the electricity sector towards renewable energy sources. In this paper the authors explore the future energy system of the Netherlands, departing from actual data on the current situation and the policy objectives regarding both electrification and energy transition. The paper derives the consequences of electrification of heating and transport for the gas and electricity sectors, greenhouse gas emissions and the total social costs.