Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners: 'Preference Ordering' Using CGE Analysis

39 Pages Posted: 2 Jul 2018

See all articles by Xianbai Ji

Xianbai Ji

Nanyang Technological University (NTU)

Pradumna Rana

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) - Division of Economics

Wai-Mun Chia

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) - School of Humanities & Social Sciences

Changtai Li

Nanyang Technological University (NTU)

Date Written: June 30, 2018

Abstract

Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.

Keywords: Post-TPP, RCEP, CPTPP, FTAAP, CGE Modelling

JEL Classification: F13, C68, F50

Suggested Citation

Ji, Xianbai and Rana, Pradumna and Chia, Wai-Mun and Li, Changtai, Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners: 'Preference Ordering' Using CGE Analysis (June 30, 2018). East Asian Economic Review Vol. 22, No. 2 (June 2018) 177-215, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342 , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3206466 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3206466

Xianbai Ji (Contact Author)

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ( email )

S3 B2-A28 Nanyang Avenue
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

Pradumna Rana

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) - Division of Economics ( email )

HSS 04-53, 14 Nanyang Drive
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

Wai-Mun Chia

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) - School of Humanities & Social Sciences ( email )

Blk S3.2-B2
Nanyang Avenue
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

Changtai Li

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ( email )

S3 B2-A28 Nanyang Avenue
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

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