Police and Crime: Further Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

32 Pages Posted: 21 Jul 2018

See all articles by Vicente Cardoso

Vicente Cardoso

Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES)

Marcelo Resende

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: June 01, 2018

Abstract

The paper investigates the effect of police presence on homicides at the municipality level in Brazil during the January 2010 to December 2014 period. For this purpose, occasional and illegal police strikes are considered as relevant shocks in a quasi-natural experiment. After controlling for different variables that explain heterogeneity across municipalities, it is possible to identify a sizeable effect accruing from police strikes on the occurrence of homicides. Despite a conservative analysis that involves temporal and spatial aggregation of variables, the evidence indicates that police strikes lead, on average, to a 16% increase in the homicide rate if one considers a broader sample of 3597 municipalities. The focus of the analysis for a large and heterogeneous country also partially may mitigate concerns for external validity that had been raised in the context of previous studies in the related literature.

Keywords: police strikes, crime

JEL Classification: C230

Suggested Citation

Cardoso, Vicente and Resende, Marcelo, Police and Crime: Further Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment (June 01, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3211154 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3211154

Vicente Cardoso

Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) ( email )

Av. Republica do Chile
100 - 12nd. Floor
100 Rio de Janeiro, 20001-970
Brazil

Marcelo Resende (Contact Author)

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) ( email )

Rua Sao Francisco Xavier, 524
Instituto de Economia
Rio de Janeiro RJ 21949
Brazil

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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