Murders in London
17 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2018
Date Written: July 26, 2018
In this short paper we focus on gaining insights into the current homicides wave in London. Our key findings are, first, the infection point for the increase in murders occurred in mid-2016, hence much later than generally discussed. Second, the MPS's own Public Attitudes Survey is a very good lead indicator for the spatial distribution of murders in London the following year. This is, when listening to the responses of young black people who consider knife crime a major issue in the area. Third, there appears to be a structural break in 2016 - hence around the time of the inflection point - when gang activity in a London ward explains murders more strongly than in previous years. Finally, gangs appear to operate in areas with higher unemployment and high population density. Furthermore, higher median house prices correlate positively with gang activity, possibly because of contested markets for drugs. All of our analyses are based on publicly available data.
Keywords: crime, policing, murder, homicide, gangs, knife
JEL Classification: J11, J18, K42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation