Murders in London

17 Pages Posted: 31 Jul 2018

See all articles by Tom Kirchmaier

Tom Kirchmaier

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance; Copenhagen Business School

Carmen Villa Llera

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP)

Date Written: July 26, 2018

Abstract

In this short paper we focus on gaining insights into the current homicides wave in London. Our key findings are, first, the infection point for the increase in murders occurred in mid-2016, hence much later than generally discussed. Second, the MPS's own Public Attitudes Survey is a very good lead indicator for the spatial distribution of murders in London the following year. This is, when listening to the responses of young black people who consider knife crime a major issue in the area. Third, there appears to be a structural break in 2016 - hence around the time of the inflection point - when gang activity in a London ward explains murders more strongly than in previous years. Finally, gangs appear to operate in areas with higher unemployment and high population density. Furthermore, higher median house prices correlate positively with gang activity, possibly because of contested markets for drugs. All of our analyses are based on publicly available data.

Keywords: crime, policing, murder, homicide, gangs, knife

JEL Classification: J11, J18, K42

Suggested Citation

Kirchmaier, Tom and Villa Llera, Carmen, Murders in London (July 26, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3211350 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3211350

Tom Kirchmaier

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
+44 207 955 6854 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/tomkirchmaier/home

Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelænshaven 24A, 3rd floor
Copenhagen
Denmark

Carmen Villa Llera (Contact Author)

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

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