Forecasting International Index Returns Using Option-Implied Variables
CRREP working paper serie 2018-07
47 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2018
Date Written: April 1, 2018
This paper investigates international index return predictability using option-implied information. We document the significant predictive power of the variance risk premium (VRP), Foster-Hart risk (FH), and higher-order moments for horizons ranging from 1 to 250 days. Our results from predictive regressions show that these four risk-neutral metrics, which have the advantage of daily updating, perform well internationally. VRP and FH risk are significant predictors for several horizons, including less than one month (VRP) and longer horizons (FH). Risk-neutral skewness and kurtosis are significant for several countries across multiple horizons. Out-of-sample forecasts and utility gain calculations confirm the statistical and economic significance of these risk-neutral variables internationally.
Keywords: Options, risk-neutral distribution, variance risk premium, return predictability, predictive regressions, international stock market returns, Foster-Hart riskiness, higher-order moments,
JEL Classification: C12, C22, G12, G13
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