The Non-Bank Credit Cycle

33 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2018 Last revised: 21 Oct 2018

See all articles by Esti Kemp

Esti Kemp

Government of the Republic of South Africa - South African Reserve Bank; University of Cape Town (UCT), Students

Rene van Stralen

De Nederlandsche Bank

Alexandros Vardoulakis

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Peter Wierts

De Nederlandsche Bank; VU University Amsterdam

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 17, 2018


We investigate the cyclical properties of non-bank credit and its relevance for financial stability. We construct a measure of non-bank credit for a large sample of countries and find that its cyclical properties differ from those of bank credit. Non-bank credit cycles are highly correlated with bank credit cycles in some countries but not in others. Moreover, non-bank credit cycles are less synchronised than bank credit cycles across countries. Finally, non-bank credit cycles could act as a leading indicator for currency, but not for systemic banking, crises. The opposite is true for bank credit cycles. These findings highlight the value added of monitoring non-bank credit.

Keywords: non-bank credit, credit cycle, leading indicator, financial crisis

JEL Classification: G01, G23, F34

Suggested Citation

Kemp, Esti and van Stralen, Rene and Vardoulakis, Alexandros and Wierts, Peter, The Non-Bank Credit Cycle (October 17, 2018). Available at SSRN: or

Esti Kemp

Government of the Republic of South Africa - South African Reserve Bank ( email )

Financial Stability Department
Financial Stability Department
South Africa

University of Cape Town (UCT), Students ( email )

South Africa

Rene Van Stralen

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB

Alexandros Vardoulakis (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

Peter Wierts

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam

VU University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081HV

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