The Non-Bank Credit Cycle

33 Pages Posted: 8 Aug 2018 Last revised: 21 Oct 2018

See all articles by Esti Kemp

Esti Kemp

University of Cape Town (UCT), Students

René van Stralen

De Nederlandsche Bank

Alexandros Vardoulakis

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Peter Wierts

Bank for International Settlements (BIS); VU University Amsterdam

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 17, 2018


We investigate the cyclical properties of non-bank credit and its relevance for financial stability. We construct a measure of non-bank credit for a large sample of countries and find that its cyclical properties differ from those of bank credit. Non-bank credit cycles are highly correlated with bank credit cycles in some countries but not in others. Moreover, non-bank credit cycles are less synchronised than bank credit cycles across countries. Finally, non-bank credit cycles could act as a leading indicator for currency, but not for systemic banking, crises. The opposite is true for bank credit cycles. These findings highlight the value added of monitoring non-bank credit.

Keywords: non-bank credit, credit cycle, leading indicator, financial crisis

JEL Classification: G01, G23, F34

Suggested Citation

Kemp, Esti and van Stralen, René and Vardoulakis, Alexandros and Wierts, Peter, The Non-Bank Credit Cycle (October 17, 2018). Available at SSRN: or

Esti Kemp

University of Cape Town (UCT), Students ( email )

South Africa

René Van Stralen

De Nederlandsche Bank ( email )

PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB

Alexandros Vardoulakis (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

Peter Wierts

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) ( email )

Centralbahnplatz 2
Basel, Basel-Stadt 4002

VU University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081HV

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