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Luck in Food-Finding Affects Individual Performance and Population Trajectories

25 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2018 Publication Status: Review Complete

See all articles by Rory P. Wilson

Rory P. Wilson

Swansea University - Swansea Lab for Animal Movement

Andrew Neate

Swansea University - Department of Mathematics

Mark D. Holton

Swansea University - Department of Computer Science

Emily L. C. Shepard

Swansea University - Swansea Lab for Animal Movement

D. Michael Scantlebury

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

Sergio A. Lambertucci

Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Research Group on Conservation Biology

Agustina di Virgilio

Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Quantitative Ecology Group

Elaine Crooks

Swansea University - Department of Mathematics

Christina Mulvenna

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

Nikki Marks

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

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Abstract

Differences between individuals in the rate of food acquisition are conventionally attributed to varying competencies even though food encounter rates are known to be probabilistic. We used animal-attached technology to quantify food intake in four disparate free-living vertebrates (condors, cheetahs, penguins and sheep) and found that inter-individual variability depended critically on the probability of food encounter. We modelled this to reveal that animals taking rarer food, such as apex predators and scavengers, are particularly susceptible to breeding failure because this variability results in larger proportions of the population failing to accrue the necessary resources for their young before they starve, and because even small changes in food abundance can affect this variability disproportionately. A test of our model on wild animals explained why Magellanic penguins have a stable population while the congeneric African penguin population has declined for decades. We suggest that such models predicting probabilistic ruin can help predict the fortunes of species operating under globally changing conditions.

Suggested Citation

Wilson, Rory P. and Neate, Andrew and Holton, Mark D. and Shepard, Emily L. C. and Scantlebury, D. Michael and Lambertucci, Sergio A. and di Virgilio, Agustina and Crooks, Elaine and Mulvenna, Christina and Marks, Nikki, Luck in Food-Finding Affects Individual Performance and Population Trajectories (2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3219288 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3219288
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

Rory P. Wilson (Contact Author)

Swansea University - Swansea Lab for Animal Movement ( email )

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Andrew Neate

Swansea University - Department of Mathematics

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Mark D. Holton

Swansea University - Department of Computer Science

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Emily L. C. Shepard

Swansea University - Swansea Lab for Animal Movement

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

D. Michael Scantlebury

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

25 University Square
Belfast, BT7 1NN
Ireland

Sergio A. Lambertucci

Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Research Group on Conservation Biology

Av. Argentina 1400
Neuquen, Neuquen 8300
Argentina

Agustina Di Virgilio

Universidad Nacional del Comahue - Quantitative Ecology Group

Av. Argentina 1400
Neuquen, Neuquen 8300
Argentina

Elaine Crooks

Swansea University - Department of Mathematics

Singleton Park
Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP
United Kingdom

Christina Mulvenna

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

25 University Square
Belfast, BT7 1NN
Ireland

Nikki Marks

Queen's University Belfast - School of Biological Sciences

25 University Square
Belfast, BT7 1NN
Ireland

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