The Evaluation of a Possible Future Sino-Japanese Armed Conflict Through the Application of the ACEI-Model
Defense and Peace Economics, 29(5): 541-556
Posted: 22 Aug 2018
Date Written: July 30, 2018
There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.
Keywords: Armed Conflict Simulation; PRC; Japan; Wartime Economic Modeling; Policy Modeling; Economic Desgrowth
JEL Classification: R11; R12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation