The Evaluation of a Possible Future Sino-Japanese Armed Conflict Through the Application of the ACEI-Model

Defense and Peace Economics, 29(5): 541-556

Posted: 22 Aug 2018

Date Written: July 30, 2018

Abstract

There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.

Keywords: Armed Conflict Simulation; PRC; Japan; Wartime Economic Modeling; Policy Modeling; Economic Desgrowth

JEL Classification: R11; R12

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo, The Evaluation of a Possible Future Sino-Japanese Armed Conflict Through the Application of the ACEI-Model (July 30, 2018). Defense and Peace Economics, 29(5): 541-556. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3222432

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

Universidad San Carlos de Guatemala (USAC) ( email )

Ciencias Economicas, Ciudad Universitaria Zona 12
Guatemala City, Guatemala City
Guatemala

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