선진국 수입수요가 우리나라 수출에 미치는 영향 (Import Demand of Advanced Countries and Korea's Exports)

44 Pages Posted: 3 Aug 2018

See all articles by Moon Jung Choi

Moon Jung Choi

The Bank of Korea; Bank of Korea - Economic Research Institute

Kyungkeun Kim

Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea

Date Written: August 3, 2018

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 선진국의 수입수요가 우리나라의 대 선진국 수출에 미치는 영향이 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 어떻게 변화하였는지 살펴보았다. 교역상대국의 수입수요를 측정하기 위해 총수요 부문별(민간소비, 공공소비, 투자, 수출)로 상이한 직간접 수입집약도를 보정한 총수요 (Import Intensity-Adjusted Demand) 변수를 산출하여 사용하였다. G7국가의 수입수요가 우리나라의 대G7 수출에 미친 영향을 동태패널 모형으로 분석한 결과, 우리나라의 대G7 수출은 상대국의 수입수요에 대해 글로벌 금융위기까지는 탄력적이었던 반면 위기 이후에는 비탄력적으로 변한 것으로 나타났다. 수입수요를 세분화하여 민간소비, 공공소비, 투자 및 수출로 나누어 분석한 결과, 위기 기간 중 G7국가의 민간소비 감소가 우리나라의 대G7 수출을 유의하게 감소시켰으며, 위기 이후에는 공공소비 증가가 우리나라 수출을 유의하게 증가시킨 것으로 분석되었다. G7국가의 수출이 우리나라의 대G7 수출을 증가시키는 영향은 위기 전후 모두 유효하였으나, G7국가의 투자가 우리나라 수출을 증가시키는 영향은 위기 이후 약화된 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 향후 선진국의 경기변화가 우리나라의 대 선진국 수출에 미치는 영향이 예전에 비해 제한적일 수 있음을 시사한다. English Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of demand for imports in advanced countries on Korea's exports to them, and how these effects have changed since the global financial crisis. As a measure of import demand, we use import intensity-adjusted demand to take into account heterogenous import intensities across components of aggregate demand. Our estimation of a dynamic panel regression model reveals that Korea's exports to G7 countries were elastic with respect to the import demand of these countries until the period of the global financial crisis, but have shifted to become inelastic since the crisis. Furthermore, we separately estimate the effects of the different components of G7 countries' aggregate demand (private consumption, public consumption, investment and exports). The results show that the decrease in private consumption in G7 countries during the crisis had a significant impact in causing the decline in Korea’s exports to them, but that the increase in their public consumption since the crisis has had a significant effect in driving the increased Korean exports to them. The effects of G7 countries' exports on Korea's exports to them remain positive and significant during both the pre- and the post-crisis periods. The effects of G7 countries' investment on Korea’s exports are also positive and significant, but the positive effect has weakened since the crisis. Our findings suggest that the overall effect of changes in G7 countries' import demand on Korea’s exports to them has weakened compared to the pre-crisis period.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: Import demand, Advanced economies, Korea’s exports, Elasticities, Global financial crisis

JEL Classification: F14, F44, G01

Suggested Citation

Choi, Moon Jung and Kim, Kyungkeun, 선진국 수입수요가 우리나라 수출에 미치는 영향 (Import Demand of Advanced Countries and Korea's Exports) (August 3, 2018). Bank of Korea WP 2018-22. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3225560 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3225560

Moon Jung Choi (Contact Author)

The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Bank of Korea - Economic Research Institute ( email )

110, 3-Ga, Namdaemunno, Jung-Gu
Seoul 100-794
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Kyungkeun Kim

Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea ( email )

110, 3-Ga, Namdaemunno, Jung-Gu
Seoul 100-794
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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