80 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2018 Last revised: 20 Jul 2021
Date Written: August 13, 2018
This paper is the first to study the cross-section of currency excess return predictors to explore alternative explanations for their existence. Using real-time data, quantitative currency trading strategies are profitable during in-sample and out-of-sample periods, even after transaction costs and comprehensive risk adjustments. However, (risk-adjusted) profits decrease substantially after the publication of the underlying academic research. In line with predictor profits reflecting mispricing, the decline is greater for strategies with larger in-sample profits and lower arbitrage costs. Moreover, the effect of risk adjustments on trading profits is limited, and signal ranks and alphas decay quickly. While analysts’ currency forecasts are inconsistent with currency predictors, analysts update their forecasts quickly to incorporate lagged predictor information. The results suggest that market participants learn about mispricing from academic publications, while contributing to it when following analysts’ forecasts.
Keywords: Exchange rates, predictors, anomalies, mispricing, analysts, market efficiency, real-time, point-in-time, arbitrage costs, IPCA, instrumented principal components analysis, principal components
JEL Classification: F31, G12, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation