Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Using Improved Multi-Region Input-Output Framework

Abstract

The agricultural sector plays a central role in the climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. As one of the key global emitters of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), much effort has to be put in order to reduce its carbon footprint (Smith el al., 2014). At the same time, according to many studies, it is arguably the most vulnerable sector to face the impacts of global warming with both land and water availability, as well as yields productivity, being under pressure (Porter et al., 2014; Fischer et al., 2005). One of the approaches that attempts to consistently account for the global interactions between climate-related adaptation and mitigation strategies in the agricultural sector is the multi-region input-output (MRIO) framework (von Lampe et al., 2014). In particular, several modelling tools reported within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, 2014) are based on the input-output framework. In this study, we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model ENVISAGE (van der Mensbrugghe, 2017), which is based on the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base (Aguiar et al., 2016), to provide an assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural sectors under the set of economic, climate change and adaptation scenarios within the AgMIP protocols. To this end, we dramatically improve the agricultural representation of the GTAP Data Base. This database can be considered an MRIO, which when reconciles its data inputs focuses on international datasets more than in the various Input-Output (IO) tables at its core.

Keywords: Climate Change, CGE Modelling, Agriculture, Economic Assessment, MRIO