lancet-header
Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals and other research experts identify content of interest prior to publication. These preprint papers are not peer-reviewed. Authors have either opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet, or submitted directly via SSRN. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These papers should not be used for clinical decision making or reporting of research to a lay audience without indicating that this is preliminary research that has not been peer-reviewed. For more information see the Comment published in The Lancet, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com

The Effect of Urbanization and Climate Change on Mosquito Population in the Pearl River Delta Region

28 Pages Posted: 4 Oct 2018

See all articles by Yongli Wang

Yongli Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability; Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA)

Steve Hung Lam Yim

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Department of Geography and Resource Management; The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability; The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Stanley Ho Big Data Decision Analytics Research Centre

Cory W. Morin

University of Washington - Department of Global Health

More...

Abstract

Background: The rising incidence of mosquito-borne diseases is a global concern. Changes in regional climate may affect the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito transmitted pathogens. The effects of changes in climate on mosquito population dynamics are complex but critical and urgent for implementing more effective public health policy. This study quantified the impact of urbanization and global climate change on the population of the mosquito species, Culex quinquefasciatus, in the Pearl River Delta region in southern China - an area that has undergone substantial urbanization and is expected to experience changes in climate.    

Methods: This study employed a mechanistic model to simulate mosquito population dynamics under various greenhouse gas emission and land-cover change scenarios based on climate data provided by a state-of-the-science regional climate model.    

Findings: Our results show a 12·6% decrease in annual mosquito population in newly urbanized (N/U) areas and a 5·9% increase in annual mosquito population in existing urban (U/U) areas. Furthermore, changing climate conditions were projected to cause a 15-17% reduction in the total annual mosquito population, however, the change will not be uniform throughout the year. Peak months exhibit a reduction in population, whereas non-peak months show a significant increase.    

Interpretation: These findings suggest mosquito control strategies may need to be adjusted to respond to the impacts of urbanization and climate change on mosquito population dynamics to maximize effectiveness. Region specific, quantitative analyses of environmental impacts on mosquito-borne disease ecology, like this study, are needed to provide policy makers with a scientific reference to guide the formation of effective transmission intervention strategies.    

Funding: This work is jointly funded by the Improvement on Competitiveness in Hiring New Faculties Fund (2013/14) of The Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Vice-Chancellor's Discretionary Fund of The Chinese University of Hong Kong (grant no. 4930744).    

Declaration of interests: We declare no competing interests.

Keywords: mosquito; urbanization; climate change; modeling

Suggested Citation

Wang, Yongli and Yim, Steve Hung Lam and Morin, Cory W., The Effect of Urbanization and Climate Change on Mosquito Population in the Pearl River Delta Region (August 17, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3235671 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3235671

Yongli Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability

Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong
China

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) - Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA)

Beijing, 100029
China

Steve Hung Lam Yim (Contact Author)

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Department of Geography and Resource Management ( email )

Hong Kong
China

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability ( email )

Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong
China

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Stanley Ho Big Data Decision Analytics Research Centre ( email )

Shatin, N.T., Hong Kong
China

Cory W. Morin

University of Washington - Department of Global Health

Seattle, WA 98195
United States

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
238
Downloads
26