Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA Data

23 Pages Posted: 22 Aug 2018 Last revised: 24 Aug 2018

See all articles by Jonathan H. Wright

Jonathan H. Wright

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics

Date Written: August 2018

Abstract

In the 2018 comprehensive update of the national income and product accounts, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released not seasonally adjusted data, and modified its seasonal adjustment procedures. I find some indication of residual seasonality in the seasonally adjusted data as published before this update. The evidence for residual seasonality is weaker in the seasonally adjusted data after the update. I also directly seasonally adjusted the aggregate not seasonally adjusted data, and this entirely avoids residual seasonality. The average absolute difference between my seasonally adjusted real GDP data and the current official published version is 1.1 percentage points in quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rates.

Suggested Citation

Wright, Jonathan H., Seasonal Adjustment of NIPA Data (August 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w24895, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3236697

Jonathan H. Wright (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins University - Department of Economics ( email )

3400 Charles Street
Baltimore, MD 21218-2685
United States

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