Deciphering Monetary Policy Board Minutes with Text Mining: The Case of South Korea

Abstract

We quantify the Monetary Policy Board (MPB) minutes of the Bank of Korea (BOK) using text mining. We propose a novel approach using a field-specific Korean dictionary and contiguous sequences of words (n-grams) to better capture the subtlety of central bank communications. We find that our text-based indicator helps explain the current and future BOK monetary policy decisions when considering an augmented Taylor rule, suggesting that they contain additional information beyond the currently available macroeconomic variables. In terms of explaining the current and future monetary policy decisions, our indicator remarkably outperforms English-based textual classifications, a media-based measure of economic policy uncertainty, and a data-based measure of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our empirical results also emphasize the importance of using a field-specific dictionary and the original Korean text.

Keywords: monetary policy, text mining, central banking, Bank of Korea, Taylor rule

JEL Classification: E43, E52