Political Statement Cycle

52 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2018 Last revised: 5 Dec 2019

See all articles by Jun Goto

Jun Goto

Kobe University

Tomoko Matsumoto

Tokyo University of Science

Junichi Yamasaki

Kobe University

Date Written: September 18, 2018

Abstract

While re-election motives are essential for controlling politicians, they may result in words without actions to win elections. Using minutes of assembly meetings, we find that politicians' statements follow election cycles: during the election years, politicians temporarily change their statements (e.g., the stated amount of money) in the budget-making process, and their stated topics become less consistent with the realized budget. The effects are larger for those who won a narrower election. These changes are associated with a higher probability of winning in the next election. The results imply that politicians lure voters with attractive statements without changing their policies.

Keywords: Re-Election Motives, Machine Learning, Minutes of Assembly, Political Budget Cycle

JEL Classification: D72, H1

Suggested Citation

Goto, Jun and Matsumoto, Tomoko and Yamasaki, Junichi, Political Statement Cycle (September 18, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3238998 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3238998

Jun Goto

Kobe University ( email )

2-1, Rokkodai
Nada-Ku
Kobe, Hyogo, 657-8501
Japan

Tomoko Matsumoto

Tokyo University of Science ( email )

1-3 Kagurazaka
Tokyo, 162-8601
Japan

Junichi Yamasaki (Contact Author)

Kobe University ( email )

2-1, Rokkodai
Nada-Ku
Kobe, Hyogo, 657-8501
Japan

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
181
Abstract Views
1,104
rank
170,289
PlumX Metrics