Political Statement Cycle
52 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2018 Last revised: 5 Dec 2019
Date Written: September 18, 2018
While re-election motives are essential for controlling politicians, they may result in words without actions to win elections. Using minutes of assembly meetings, we find that politicians' statements follow election cycles: during the election years, politicians temporarily change their statements (e.g., the stated amount of money) in the budget-making process, and their stated topics become less consistent with the realized budget. The effects are larger for those who won a narrower election. These changes are associated with a higher probability of winning in the next election. The results imply that politicians lure voters with attractive statements without changing their policies.
Keywords: Re-Election Motives, Machine Learning, Minutes of Assembly, Political Budget Cycle
JEL Classification: D72, H1
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation