Trade Wars #2018: The Likely Trade and Economic Impact So Far

33 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2018 Last revised: 28 Nov 2018

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; C.D. Howe Institute; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

Olivia Ouyang

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: September 14, 2018

Abstract

This study quantifies the trade and economic impacts of the tariff measures taken to date in the main salvoes of the trade wars unleashed by unilateral US tariff measures imposed on steel and aluminum pursuant to the Department of Commerce Section 232 National Security Investigation, on imports from China, pursuant to a Section 301 investigation of China’s practices in respect of intellectual property, and threatened tariffs on the automotive sector pursuant to a still-ongoing Section 232 National Security Investigation into “Imports of Automobiles, including Cars, SUVs, Vans and Light Trucks, and Automotive Parts. The simulations take into account the announced retaliation against these US measures by its trading partners. The simulations do not take into account the announced United States-Mexico Trade Agreement that would replace the North American Free Trade Agreement and would likely exempt Mexico from any imposition of auto tariffs and provide Mexico a quota on steel and aluminum exports to the United States as a quid-pro-quo for reducing Mexico’s role in production for the US market.

Keywords: Trade Wars, Tariffs, United States, Autos, Steel and Aluminum, China, CGE, Section 232, Section 301

JEL Classification: F13, F14

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Ouyang, Mengchun and Xiao, Jingliang, Trade Wars #2018: The Likely Trade and Economic Impact So Far (September 14, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3239712 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3239712

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

C.D. Howe Institute ( email )

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Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) ( email )

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Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada ( email )

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Mengchun Ouyang

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167 Glenbrooks Place
surrey, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

16167,Glenbrooks Pl
Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
Canada
6047245981 (Phone)
6047245981 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.infsum.com/en/

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

83 Stewart St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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