Efek Dinamis Gangguan Permintaan Dan Penawaran Agregat Terhadap Fluktuasi Inflasi Di Indonesia (Dynamics Effect of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances on Inflation in Indonesia)

Abstract

Indonesian Abstract: Otoritas moneter yang memiliki tujuan utama kestabilan harga harus mampu membedakan syok permintaan dan penawaran pada tingkat inflasi. Oeh karena itu suatu upaya melakukan dekomposisi komponen inflasi memiliki peran yang penting dalam kebijakan moneter. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk melakukan dekomposisi inflasi di Indonesia dengan mengaplikasikan model 'structural vector autoregression (SVAR)', khususnya model 'Quah and Vahey (1995)'. Model ini memiliki karakteristik menggunakan restriksi berdasarkan proposisi teori ekonomi, 'forward orientation' dengan menyertakan 'variance decompistion analysis' dan 'impulse response analysis'.

English Abstract: A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between demand and supply shocks to the rate of inflation. A decomposition of inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy. In this paper, a decomposition of inflation in Indonesia is obtained using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) method; especially it will be introduced Quah and Vahey’s model (1995). This method is characterized by the use of restrictions based on propositions set forth by economic theory, forward orientation by employing a variance decomposition analysis and an impulse response analysis.

Note: Downloadable document is in Indonesian.

Keywords: SVAR, Quah and Vahey’s model, supply shocks, demand shocks, variance decomposition analysis, impulse response analysis

JEL Classification: E31