Flexible Optimal Models for Predicting Stock Market Returns
The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, v. 12 (2) p. 39-48
23 Pages Posted: 25 Feb 2019
Date Written: 2018
This study assesses the usefulness of flexible optimal models of business cycle variables for predicting stock market returns. We find that variable estimation periods identify structural breaks in months with large absolute returns and the optimal models recognize regime switches. Flexible optimal models have much greater predictive power for stock market returns than fixed univariate or multivariate models. The dividend yield has consistent predictive power for stock market returns, but different variables make significant contributions to predicting stock market returns in different periods. These findings highlight the importance of employing flexible optimal models to consistently predict stock market returns.
Keywords: Predicting Stock Returns, Optimal Models, Business Cycles, Dividend Yield
JEL Classification: G11, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation