Current Issues on the Price of Oil: Decline, Forecasting, Volatility and Uncertainty

8 Pages Posted: 5 Sep 2018

See all articles by Niaz Bashiri Behmiri

Niaz Bashiri Behmiri

University of Beira Interior - Department of Management and Economics; University of Tehran - Faculty of Economics

Andrea Bastianin

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

Elisa Bortolussi

University of Milan - Bicocca

Francesca Conti

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Matteo Manera

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS); Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

Marcella Nicolini

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management

Date Written: July 9, 2015

Abstract

The 2015 workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the sharp decline in the oil price in 2014. High crude oil production and slower demand growth explain a large fraction of the current low level of prices, but a complex set of factors is responsible. In light of these events, forecasting the price of oil is challenging and requires composite information: accurate forecasting models are able to predict this. The decline in price is reflected in an increase in oil price volatility and uncertainty, which have relevant implications on the real economy.

Keywords: Oil Price Decline, Forecasting, Volatility, Uncertainty

JEL Classification: Q41, Q43, Q47

Suggested Citation

Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz and Bastianin, Andrea and Bortolussi, Elisa and Conti, Francesca and Manera, Matteo and Nicolini, Marcella, Current Issues on the Price of Oil: Decline, Forecasting, Volatility and Uncertainty (July 9, 2015). Review of Environment, Energy and Economics (Re3), July 2015. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3243899

Niaz Bashiri Behmiri

University of Beira Interior - Department of Management and Economics ( email )

Portugal

University of Tehran - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Tehran
Iran

Andrea Bastianin

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Piazza dell'Ateneo Nuovo, 1
Milan, 20126
Italy

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for European Studies (CefES)

U6 Building
Viale Piero e Alberto Pirelli, 22
Milano, 20126
Italy

Elisa Bortolussi

University of Milan - Bicocca ( email )

Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8
Milano, Milano 20126
Italy

Francesca Conti

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Matteo Manera (Contact Author)

University of Milan-Bicocca, Italy - Department of Economics, Management and Statistics (DEMS) ( email )

Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 8
Milan, 20126
Italy
+39 02 6448 5819 (Phone)
+39 02 6448 5878 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.matteomanera.it

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy ( email )

Corso Magenta, 63
Milan, 20123
Italy
+39 02 520 36944 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.feem.it

Marcella Nicolini

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management ( email )

Strada Nuova, 65
Pavia, 27100
Italy

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