Output Hysteresis and Optimal Monetary Policy

Abstract

We analyze the implications for monetary policy when deficient aggregate demand can cause a permanent loss in potential output, a phenomenon termed as "output hysteresis." In the model, incomplete stabilization of a temporary shortfall in demand reduces the return to innovation, thus reducing TFP growth and generating a permanent loss in output. The origin of output hysteresis is contingent on the monetary policy rule. When the nominal interest rate is constrained at the zero lower bound, a central bank unable to commit to future policy actions suffers from "hysteresis bias": it does not offset past losses in potential output. A new policy rule that targets zero output hysteresis approximates the optimal policy by keeping output at the first-best level. Estimated structural impulse response functions for key variables align with predictions of the model. A quantitative model provides evidence of significant output hysteresis resulting from endogenous growth over the Great Recession.

Keywords: Hysteresis, Zero Lower Bound, Secular Stagnation

JEL Classification: E52, E32, O42