Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather

21 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2018

See all articles by Derek Lemoine

Derek Lemoine

University of Arizona - Department of Economics

Date Written: September 2018

Abstract

I formally relate the consequences of climate change to time series variation in weather. First, I show that the effects of climate change on adaptation investments can be bounded from below by estimating responses to weather outcomes. The bound becomes tighter when also estimating responses to forecasts. Second, I show that the marginal effect of climate change on long-run payoffs is identical to the average effect of transient weather events. Empirical work should begin estimating the average effect of weather within each climate, which differs from previous approaches.

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Suggested Citation

Lemoine, Derek, Estimating the Consequences of Climate Change from Variation in Weather (September 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w25008. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3246831

Derek Lemoine (Contact Author)

University of Arizona - Department of Economics ( email )

McClelland Hall
Tucson, AZ 85721-0108
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.dereklemoine.com/

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