Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants

44 Pages Posted: 17 Sep 2018

See all articles by Govert E. Bijwaard

Govert E. Bijwaard

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI); Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Christian Schluter

University of Southampton - Division of Economics

Abstract

Consider the duration of stay of migrants in a host country. We propose a statistical model of locally interdependent return hazards in order to examine whet- her interactions at the level of the neighbourhood are present and lead to social multipliers. To estimate this model we develop and study two complementary estimation strategies, demonstrate their good performance while standard non-spatial estimators are shown to be heavily biased. Using a unique large administrative panel dataset for the population of recent labour immigrants to the Netherlands, we quantify the local social multipliers in several factual and counterfactual experiments, and demonstrate that these are substantial.

Keywords: interdependent hazards, local interaction, social multipliers, return migration

JEL Classification: C41, C10, C31, J61

Suggested Citation

Bijwaard, Govert and Schluter, Christian, Interdependent Hazards, Local Interactions, and the Return Decision of Recent Migrants. IZA Discussion Paper No. 11780. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3249894

Govert Bijwaard (Contact Author)

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) ( email )

P.O. Box 11650
NL-2502 AR The Hague
Netherlands
+31 70 3565224 (Phone)

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam, NL 3062 PA
Netherlands

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Christian Schluter

University of Southampton - Division of Economics ( email )

Southampton, SO17 1BJ
United Kingdom
+44 2380 59 5909 (Phone)
+44 2380 59 3858 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: www.economics.soton.ac.uk/staff/schluter/

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