Fragilité régionale, capacité de l’État et guerre civile (Regional Vulnerability, State Capacity, and Civil War)

CRREP working paper serie 2018-08

35 Pages Posted: 2 Nov 2018

See all articles by Arthur Silve

Arthur Silve

Université Laval

Thierry Verdier

Paris School of Economics (PSE); Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: September 1, 2018

Abstract

French Abstract: Il est fréquent que de voir des guerres civiles éclater simultanément dans des pays voisins. Ceci tient notamment à ce que ces pays présentent des caractéristiques communes, et aussi à ce qu’une guerre civile favorise l’apparition de conflits dans les pays voisins. La littérature empirique dissocie habituellement ces deux explications. Nous proposons un modèl de la contagion des guerres civiles, qui illustre que certaines caractéristiques des pays sont affectées par le risque de contagion. En particulier, un gouvernement peut éviter la contagion en investissant dans la qualité de ses institutions. La complémentarité stratégique entre les institutions de pays voisins génère des regroupements de pays selon leur capacité étatique. Ceci suggère que les effets de contagion ont pu jusque là être sous-estimés par la littérature empirique.

English Abstract: Civil wars tend to cluster in time and in space. Similar geographical characteristics, resource endowments, and climatic conditions, may favor conflict simultaneously in neighbor countries. Moreover, civil conflict in one country often spills over to neighboring countries. The empirical literature usually considers these two explanations separately. We propose a model of the contagion of civil wars, which suggests that the risk of contagion has an impact of domestic features of a neighbor. In particular, a government can prevent contagion through investment in better institutions. This channel is the source of a strategic complementarity between the institutions of neighboring countries. This explains a pattern of clustering of countries according to their institutions, and suggests that contagion effect may have been underestimated by the empirical literature.

Note: Downloadable document is in French.

Keywords: guerre civile, contagion, capacité étatique

JEL Classification: D74, N40, P48

Suggested Citation

Silve, Arthur and Verdier, Thierry, Fragilité régionale, capacité de l’État et guerre civile (Regional Vulnerability, State Capacity, and Civil War) (September 1, 2018). CRREP working paper serie 2018-08, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3250807 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3250807

Arthur Silve (Contact Author)

Université Laval ( email )

1025 avenue des sciences-humaines
Québec, QC G1V 0A6
Canada
4186562131 (Phone)
4186562131 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.fss.ulaval.ca/notre-faculte/repertoire-du-personnel/arthur-silve

Thierry Verdier

Paris School of Economics (PSE) ( email )

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014
France

Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) - Department of Economics ( email )

Rua Marques de Sao Vicente, 225/206F
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 22453
Brazil

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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