Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science
Bent Flyvbjerg, 2018, "Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science," Local Transport Today, 27 April, 2018
5 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2018
Date Written: April 27, 2018
The paper argues that if you want to get cost estimates right for large capital investment projects, you need to unlearn conventional cost forecasting, with its century-long record of getting cost estimates wrong. Instead you need to learn behavioral science, because behavior, and not artifacts, is the main problem in getting cost forecasts right.
Keywords: Cost Overrun; Cost Underestimation; Cost Forecasting; Root Causes of Cost Overrun; Behavioral Science; Optimism Bias; Strategic Misrepresentation; Delusion; Deception; Moral Hazard; Agency; Reference Class Forecasting; De-Biasing
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