Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science

Bent Flyvbjerg, 2018, "Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science," Local Transport Today, 27 April, 2018

5 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2018

See all articles by Bent Flyvbjerg

Bent Flyvbjerg

University of Oxford - Said Business School

Date Written: April 27, 2018

Abstract

The paper argues that if you want to get cost estimates right for large capital investment projects, you need to unlearn conventional cost forecasting, with its century-long record of getting cost estimates wrong. Instead you need to learn behavioral science, because behavior, and not artifacts, is the main problem in getting cost forecasts right.

Keywords: Cost Overrun; Cost Underestimation; Cost Forecasting; Root Causes of Cost Overrun; Behavioral Science; Optimism Bias; Strategic Misrepresentation; Delusion; Deception; Moral Hazard; Agency; Reference Class Forecasting; De-Biasing

Suggested Citation

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science (April 27, 2018). Bent Flyvbjerg, 2018, "Critics Don't Understand Behavioral Science," Local Transport Today, 27 April, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3252436

Bent Flyvbjerg (Contact Author)

University of Oxford - Said Business School ( email )

Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
Great Britain

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