Climate Sensitivity and the Responsiveness of Temperature to Atmospheric CO2

8 Pages Posted: 15 Oct 2018

Date Written: September 25, 2018

Abstract

Detrended correlation analysis of global mean temperature observations and model projections are compared in a test for the theory that surface temperature is responsive to atmospheric CO2 concentration in terms of GHG forcing of surface temperature implied by the Climate Sensitivity parameter ECS. The test shows strong evidence of GHG forcing of warming in the theoretical RCP8.5 temperature projections made with CMIP5 forcings. However, no evidence of GHG forcing by CO2 is found in observational temperatures from four sources including two from satellite measurements. The test period is set to 1979-2018 so that satellite data can be included on a comparable basis. No empirical evidence is found in these data for a climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration or for the proposition that reductions in fossil fuel emissions will moderate the rate of warming.

Keywords: Global Warming, Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect, WMGHG Forcing, Anthropogenic Global Warming, AGW, Fossil Fuel Emissions, Climate Action, Paris Agreement, CMIP5, RCP8.5, ECS, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Suggested Citation

Munshi, Jamal, Climate Sensitivity and the Responsiveness of Temperature to Atmospheric CO2 (September 25, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3254751 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3254751

Jamal Munshi (Contact Author)

Sonoma State University ( email )

1801 East Cotati Avenue
Rohnert Park, CA 94928
United States

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