Stress Scenario Development: Global Challenges for the Russian Agricultural Sector

26 Pages Posted: 11 Oct 2018

See all articles by Ilya Kuzminov

Ilya Kuzminov

Higher School of Economics

Irina V. Loginova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Elena Khabirova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Date Written: October 2, 2018

Abstract

This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in the global agricultural sector focused the impact of these development on the Russian economy. Special attention is paid to scenarios involving deviation from conventional trends, when the imbalance between production and consumption becomes particularly acute while the situation in global food markets changes quickly and significantly with serious consequences for the Russian economy. This remains dependent on developed countries, which are major suppliers of vital resources required for the Russian agricultural sector. Six stress scenarios for the Russian agricultural sector, if certain drivers are triggered, were developed. In contrast to conventional forecasts based on the trends formed in recent years, stress scenarios consider the disruption of such trends, which today are recognized by most experts as the most realistic.

Keywords: stress scenarios, wildcards, black swans, weak signals, technological shifts, agricultural sector, food markets, text-mining

JEL Classification: C55, O1, O3

Suggested Citation

Kuzminov, Ilya and Loginova, Irina V. and Khabirova, Elena, Stress Scenario Development: Global Challenges for the Russian Agricultural Sector (October 2, 2018). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 88/STI/2018, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3259104 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259104

Ilya Kuzminov

Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Irina V. Loginova

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Elena Khabirova (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

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