A quantitative analysis of the size of IMF resources

39 Pages Posted: 10 Oct 2018

See all articles by Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois

Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois

Banco de España

Menno Broos

European Central Bank (ECB)

Sonsoles Gallego Herrero

Banco de España

Isabel Garrido

Banco de España

Fernando López Vicente

Banco de España

Mayukh Mukhopadhyay

Bank of England

Claudia Maurini

Bank of Italy

Benjamin Vonessen

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: October 2, 2018

Abstract

In this report, three methodological approaches are applied to assess the size of the International Monetary Fund: benchmarking Fund resources against a number of relevant global economic and financial indicators; an extrapolation of past and current IMF programme characteristics; and a shock scenario analysis. Overall, while the results of the different approaches depend on the assumptions and the timeframe considered, the quantitative analysis indicates that a prudent approach would call for maintaining Fund total resources at their current levels. Yet, the quantitative analysis of the size of the Fund made in this report should be seen only as one element to assess the adequacy of Fund resources. It does not take into account qualitative considerations, such as the increased resilience of the global economy and the efforts made to strengthen regulation and supervision since the financial crisis, which should complement the quantitative analysis to complete the analytical basis for decision makers. Moreover, the final decision on the appropriate size of Fund resources will need to include political judgement. Therefore, this report does not provide recommendations on the appropriate level of IMF resources after the expiration of borrowed resources.

Keywords: IMF, GFSN, shock scenario analysis

JEL Classification: F3, F32, F38, F42, F65, G28

Suggested Citation

L´Hotellerie-Fallois, Pilar and Broos, Menno and Gallego Herrero, Sonsoles and Garrido, Isabel and López Vicente, Fernando and Mukhopadhyay, Mayukh and Maurini, Claudia and Vonessen, Benjamin, A quantitative analysis of the size of IMF resources (October 2, 2018). ECB Occasional Paper No. 213. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3260424

Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Menno Broos

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Sonsoles Gallego Herrero

Banco de España ( email )

Madrid 28014
Spain

Isabel Garrido

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Fernando López Vicente

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Mayukh Mukhopadhyay

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Claudia Maurini

Bank of Italy ( email )

Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy

Benjamin Vonessen

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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