북한지역 장기주택수요 및 연관 주택건설투자 추정 (Estimation of Long-term Housing Demand and Related Housing Construction Investment in North Korea)

39 Pages Posted: 16 Oct 2018

See all articles by Jooyung Lee

Jooyung Lee

Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea

Date Written: October 10, 2018

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 본고는 북한 사경제의 중요한 부문으로 여겨지는 주택건설 활성화가 앞 으로 지속될 것인지 점검하기 위하여 북한 장기 주택수요와 이와 연관된 주택건설투자의 추세를 추정하였다. 우선 Mankiw-Weil 모형에 의거하여 북한지역 장기주택수요를 추정하였다. 북한이탈주민 설문조사 자료를 기초로 북한 주민의 개인 주택수요를 추정한 후 이를 연령별 인구수에 적 용하여 인구기반 총주택수요를 산출하였다. 이를 통해 북한의 인구기반 총주택수요는 2001~20년중 연평균기준 0.6~0.9%에서 2021~30년중 0.3% 로 증가세가 점차 둔화될 것으로 예상되었다.

한편 2021년 이후 북한이 대외개방을 본격적으로 추진하고 이를 통해 소득수준이 상당폭 개선되는 시나리오를 가정할 경우, 사망률 저하에 따 른 인구증가 효과와 소득증가에 따른 개인의 주택수요 효과가 더해져 2021~30년중 북한의 총주택수요 증가율이 연평균 0.6%p(저성장 시나리 오)~1.8%p(고성장 시나리오) 만큼 추가로 확대되는 것으로 추정되었다. 이를 주택건설투자와 연결해서 보면 주택의 면적기준으로는 10년간 누적 1230(저성장)~3410만평(고성장), 금액기준으로는 28(저성장)~77조원(고 성장) 정도 추가 투자될 것으로 보인다. 이는 북한의 대외개방이 본격화 된다면 주택수요가 큰 폭으로 증가될 수 있어 예상보다 많은 주택건설 투 자가 필요할 것임을 시사한다.

Engish Abstract: This paper estimates long-term housing demand and the related housing construction investment in North Korea, to ascertain whether the growth in housing construction investment, which is considered an important part of private economic activity in North Korea, will continue in the future. First, long-term housing demand is estimated based on the Mankiw-Weil model. We then calculate the demographics-driven aggregate housing demand in North Korea, by estimating individuals’ demands for housing using age-based survey data on North Korean defectors, and applying it in view of the age structure of North Korea’s population. According to these estimates, the pace of increase in demographics-driven housing demand shows a gradual slowdown, from an annual average of 0.6% to 0.9% between 2001 and 2020, to 0.3% between 2021 and 2030. This paper next forecasts housing demand and the scale of housing construction in North Korea based on the assumption that the country will pursue external openness on full scale from 2021, and that this will lead to considerable growth in income. If external openness leads to a declining mortality rate and increases in individual demand, then an additional 0.6%p (for the low growth scenario) to 1.8%p (for the high growth scenario) in the annual rate of growth in total housing demand is likely, compared to the baseline scenario. The related housing construction investment is anticipated to show additional increases of 12.3 million pyeong (1 pyeong ≒ 3.3㎡) (low growth scenario) to 34.1 million pyeong (high growth scenario) in terms of area, and of 28 trillion won (low growth) to 77 trillion won (high growth) in terms of amount during the 10 years from 2021. This suggests that, if North Korea’s efforts to open to the world reach full swing, housing demand is likely to grow significantly and more housing construction investment will be needed than is currently projected.

Keywords: Long-term Housing Demand, Mankiw-Weil Model, External Openness,

JEL Classification: E01, E17, J10, R21

Suggested Citation

Lee, Jooyung, 북한지역 장기주택수요 및 연관 주택건설투자 추정 (Estimation of Long-term Housing Demand and Related Housing Construction Investment in North Korea) (October 10, 2018). Bank of Korea WP 2018-32. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3263804 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3263804

Jooyung Lee (Contact Author)

Economic Research Institute, The Bank of Korea ( email )

39, Namdaemun-ro, Jung-gu
Seoul, 04531
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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