Is Expert Input Valuable? The Case of Predicting Surgery Duration

Seoul Journal of Business, Forthcoming

43 Pages Posted: 4 Nov 2018 Last revised: 16 Oct 2019

See all articles by Rouba Ibrahim

Rouba Ibrahim

University College London

Song-Hee Kim

University of Southern California - Marshall school of Business

Date Written: October 16, 2019

Abstract

Most data-driven decision support tools do not include input from people. We study whether and how to incorporate physician input into such tools, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration. Using data from a hospital, we evaluate and compare the performances of three families of models: models with physician forecasts, purely data-based models, and models that combine physician forecasts and data. We find that combined models perform the best, which suggests that physician forecasts have valuable information above and beyond what is captured by data. We also find that applying simple corrections to physician forecasts performs comparably well.

Keywords: Empirical Research, Healthcare Operations, Operating Room Reservation, Surgery Duration, Expert Input, Discretion

Suggested Citation

Ibrahim, Rouba and Kim, Song-Hee, Is Expert Input Valuable? The Case of Predicting Surgery Duration (October 16, 2019). Seoul Journal of Business, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3265612 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3265612

Rouba Ibrahim

University College London ( email )

1 Canada Square
London, England E145AB
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.roubaibrahim.com

Song-Hee Kim (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Marshall school of Business ( email )

BRI 401, 3670 Trousdale Parkway
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

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