Where's the Winning?

24 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2018

See all articles by Anthony W. Orlando

Anthony W. Orlando

California State Polytechnic University, Pomona - Finance, Real Estate and Law Department

Date Written: October 16, 2018

Abstract

Donald Trump premised his successful campaign for the United States presidency on a pledge that his supporters would "start winning again." This paper evaluates the extent to which this promise became a reality for those voters. By comparing votes at the county level, I show that Trump support is not associated with any significant relative improvement in either employment or housing prices. In fact, counties that voted for Hillary Clinton have performed significantly better in the housing market, even after controlling for previous differences in prices and growth rates. There is simply no evidence of superior economic performance in the regions that had fallen behind under previous presidencies.

Keywords: Donald Trump, 2016 election, Hillary Clinton, voting, housing prices, employment, economic growth

JEL Classification: D71, P16, R11

Suggested Citation

Orlando, Anthony W., Where's the Winning? (October 16, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3267509 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3267509

Anthony W. Orlando (Contact Author)

California State Polytechnic University, Pomona - Finance, Real Estate and Law Department ( email )

United States

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