Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market after One Decade

86 Pages Posted: 16 Mar 2020

See all articles by David P. Blake

David P. Blake

City, University of London

Andrew J. G. Cairns

Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics

Kevin Dowd

Durham Business School

Amy Kessler

Prudential Financial

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 22, 2018

Abstract

This paper updates Living with Mortality published in 2006. It describes how the longevity risk transfer market has developed over the intervening period, and, in particular, how insurance-based solutions – buy-outs, buy-ins and longevity insurance – have triumphed over capital markets solutions that were expected to dominate at the time. Some capital markets solutions – longevity-spread bonds, longevity swaps, q-forwards, and tail-risk protection – have come to market, but the volume of business has been disappointingly low. The reason for this is that when market participants compare the index-based solutions of the capital markets with the customized solutions of insurance companies in terms of basis risk, credit risk, regulatory capital, collateral, and liquidity, the former perform on balance less favourably despite a lower potential cost. We discuss the importance of stochastic mortality models for forecasting future longevity and examine some applications of these models, e.g., determining the longevity risk premium and estimating regulatory capital relief. The longevity risk transfer market is now beginning to recognize that there is insufficient capacity in the insurance and reinsurance industries to deal fully with demand and new solutions for attracting capital markets investors are now being examined – such as longevity-linked securities and reinsurance sidecars.

Keywords: Longevity Risk; Buy-Outs; Buy-Ins; Longevity Insurance; Longevity Bonds; Longevity Swaps; q-Forwards; Tail-Risk Protection; Basis Risk; Credit Risk; Regulatory Capital; Collateral; Liquidity; Stochastic Mortality Models; Longevity Risk Premium; Longevity-Linked Securities; Reinsurance Sidecars

JEL Classification: G22

Suggested Citation

Blake, David P. and Cairns, Andrew J. G. and Dowd, Kevin and Kessler, Amy, Still Living with Mortality: The Longevity Risk Transfer Market after One Decade (October 22, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3271282 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3271282

David P. Blake (Contact Author)

City, University of London ( email )

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Andrew J. G. Cairns

Heriot-Watt University - Department of Actuarial Science & Statistics ( email )

Edinburgh, Scotland EH14 4AS
United Kingdom

Kevin Dowd

Durham Business School ( email )

Mill Hill Lane
Durham, Durham DH1 3LB
United Kingdom

Amy Kessler

Prudential Financial ( email )

United States

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