Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World in Transition

31 Pages Posted: 26 Oct 2018

See all articles by Hai-Anh Dang

Hai-Anh Dang

World Bank- Development Data Group (DECDG)

Elena Ianchovichina

World Bank

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 2018

Abstract

This paper studies welfare dynamics, especially changes associated with middle‐class status in Arab countries. Absent panel data, we construct synthetic panels using repeated cross sections of household expenditure surveys and subjective wellbeing surveys conducted during the 2000s and early 2010s. Objective welfare dynamics indicate mixed trends. About half of the poor in the 2000s moved out of poverty by the end of the decade, but chronic poverty remained high; upward mobility was strong in Syria and Tunisia, but downward mobility was pronounced in Yemen and Egypt. The analysis with subjective wellbeing data suggests negative developments in most countries during the Arab Spring transitions and provides evidence on the eroding middle‐class consensus in Arab countries before and after the Arab Spring. Low education achievement, informal worker status, and rural residency are positively associated with lower chances for upward mobility and greater chances for downward mobility for both types of welfare measures.

Keywords: Arab Spring, middle class, poverty, synthetic panel, vulnerability

Suggested Citation

Dang, Hai-Anh H. and Ianchovichina, Elena, Welfare Dynamics with Synthetic Panels: The Case of the Arab World in Transition (October 2018). Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 64, pp. S114-S144, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3273054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12389

Hai-Anh H. Dang (Contact Author)

World Bank- Development Data Group (DECDG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
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HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/site/haianhhdang/

Elena Ianchovichina

World Bank ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-458-8910 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

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