Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices

Posted: 26 Oct 2018

See all articles by Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Monika Zurek

University of Oxford

Steven Lord

University of Oxford

Natalia Brzezina

KU Leuven

Gnel Gabrielyan

Cornell University

Jessica Libertini

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adam Loch

University of Adelaide

Resham Thapa-Parajuli

University of Hull

Joost Vervoort

Utrecht University

Henk Westhoek

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague)

Date Written: October 2018

Abstract

In an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, where social and environmental change occur ever more rapidly, careful futures-oriented thinking becomes crucial for effective decision making. Foresight activities, including scenario development, quantitative modeling, and scenario-guided design of policies and programs, play a key role in exploring options to address socioeconomic and environmental challenges across many sectors and decision-making levels. We take stock of recent methodological developments in scenario and foresight exercises, seek to provide greater clarity on the many diverse approaches employed, and examine their use by decision makers in different fields and at different geographic, administrative, and temporal scales. Experience shows the importance of clearly formulated questions, structured dialog, carefully designed scenarios, sophisticated biophysical and socioeconomic analysis, and iteration as needed to more effectively link the growing scenarios and foresight community with today's decision makers and to better address the social, economic, and environmental challenges of tomorrow.

Suggested Citation

Wiebe, Keith and Zurek, Monika and Lord, Steven and Brzezina, Natalia and Gabrielyan, Gnel and Libertini, Jessica and Loch, Adam and Thapa-Parajuli, Resham and Vervoort, Joost and Westhoek, Henk, Scenario Development and Foresight Analysis: Exploring Options to Inform Choices (October 2018). Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 43, pp. 545-570, 2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3273325 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-030109

Keith Wiebe (Contact Author)

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States
+1 202-862-5600 (Phone)
+1 202-467-4439 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ifpri.org/

Monika Zurek

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Steven Lord

University of Oxford ( email )

Mansfield Road
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 4AU
United Kingdom

Natalia Brzezina

KU Leuven ( email )

Oude Markt 13
Leuven, Vlaams-Brabant 3000
Belgium

Gnel Gabrielyan

Cornell University ( email )

Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

Jessica Libertini

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Adam Loch

University of Adelaide ( email )

No 233 North Terrace, School of Commerce
Adelaide, South Australia 5005
Australia

Resham Thapa-Parajuli

University of Hull ( email )

Cottingham Road
Hull, Great Britain HU6 7RX
United Kingdom

Joost Vervoort

Utrecht University ( email )

Vredenburg 138
Utrecht, 3511 BG
Netherlands

Henk Westhoek

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague) ( email )

Oranjebuitensingel 6
The Hague, 2511 VE
Netherlands

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
28
PlumX Metrics