A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, Macroeconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections

26 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2018

See all articles by Nick S Jagger

Nick S Jagger

University of Sussex - Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU)

Date Written: October 2018

Abstract

This paper is based around outlining and illustrating the use of a co-evolutionary method for long-term macro-economic forecasting. The paper includes economic forecasts for the UK to 2060 using a novel approach based on Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA). The forecasts are based on projections of the working-age population and their educational attainment, as well as building on the historic trends of these variables. The variables forecasted are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and productivity, based on historic time-series dating back to 1856, and their interactions with the projected variables. Other long-term forecasts for the UK are examined and the important impact of demographic change and plateauing educational attainment is assessed. Additionally, the power of the new MSSA forecasting technique proposed here is illustrated.

Keywords: Co-evolutionary forecasting; Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis; Demographics; Educational Attainment; Long-term macro-economic forecasting

JEL Classification: B15; B22; C14; C53; J11

Suggested Citation

Jagger, Nick S, A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, Macroeconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections (October 2018). SWPS 2018-20, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3275246 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275246

Nick S Jagger (Contact Author)

University of Sussex - Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) ( email )

Brighton, BN1 9SL
United Kingdom

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