A Co-Evolutionary, Long-Term, Macroeconomic Forecast for the UK Using Demographic Projections
26 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2018
Date Written: October 2018
This paper is based around outlining and illustrating the use of a co-evolutionary method for long-term macro-economic forecasting. The paper includes economic forecasts for the UK to 2060 using a novel approach based on Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA). The forecasts are based on projections of the working-age population and their educational attainment, as well as building on the historic trends of these variables. The variables forecasted are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment and productivity, based on historic time-series dating back to 1856, and their interactions with the projected variables. Other long-term forecasts for the UK are examined and the important impact of demographic change and plateauing educational attainment is assessed. Additionally, the power of the new MSSA forecasting technique proposed here is illustrated.
Keywords: Co-evolutionary forecasting; Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis; Demographics; Educational Attainment; Long-term macro-economic forecasting
JEL Classification: B15; B22; C14; C53; J11
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation