An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

85 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2018

See all articles by Jeremy Greenwood

Jeremy Greenwood

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Philipp Kircher

European University Institute

Cezar Santos

FGV EPGE

Michèle Tertilt

University of Mannheim - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 4 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2018

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework thus complements the insights provided by epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments.

Keywords: ART, circumcision, condoms, disease transmission, epidemiological studies, HIV/AIDS, homo economicus, knowledge about HIV, Malawi, marriage, policy intervention, search, small field experiments, STDs, sex markets

JEL Classification: I180, J120, O110, O550

Suggested Citation

Greenwood, Jeremy and Kircher, Philipp and Santos, Cezar and Tertilt, Michèle, An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic (2018). CESifo Working Paper No. 7205. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3275378

Jeremy Greenwood (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
133 South 36th Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1505 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://jeremygreenwood.net

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Philipp Kircher

European University Institute ( email )

Villa Schifanoia
133 via Bocaccio
Firenze (Florence), Tuscany 50014
Italy

Cezar Santos

FGV EPGE ( email )

Praia de Botafogo
190/1100
Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Michèle Tertilt

University of Mannheim - Department of Economics ( email )

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

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