Speculative Pressure

Journal of Futures Markets, Forthcoming

39 Pages Posted: 2 Dec 2018 Last revised: 2 Dec 2019

See all articles by John Hua Fan

John Hua Fan

Griffith University - Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics

Adrian Fernandez-Perez

Auckland University of Technology

Ana-Maria Fuertes

Cass Business School, City University of London

Joëlle Miffre

Audencia Nantes School of Management; Audencia Business School

Date Written: November 27, 2019

Abstract

The paper investigates the information content of speculative pressure across futures classes. Long-short portfolios of futures contracts sorted by speculative pressure capture a significant premium in commodity, currency and equity markets but not in fixed income markets. Exposure to commodity, currency and equity index futures’ speculative pressure is priced in the broad cross-section after controlling for momentum, carry, global liquidity and volatility risks. The findings are confirmed by robustness tests using alternative speculative pressure signals, portfolio construction techniques and sub-periods inter alia. We argue that there is an efficient hedgers-speculators risk transfer in commodity, currency and equity index futures markets.

Keywords: Speculative Pressure, Futures Markets, Risk Premium, Pricing

JEL Classification: G13, G14

Suggested Citation

Fan, John Hua and Fernandez-Perez, Adrian and Fuertes, Ana-Maria and Miffre, Joelle, Speculative Pressure (November 27, 2019). Journal of Futures Markets, Forthcoming . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3279425 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3279425

John Hua Fan

Griffith University - Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics ( email )

Brisbane, Queensland 4111
Australia
+61 (0)7 3735 3948 (Phone)
+61 (0)7 373 57760 (Fax)

Adrian Fernandez-Perez

Auckland University of Technology ( email )

AUT City Campus
Private Bag 92006
Auckland, 1142
New Zealand
+64 9 921 9999 (Phone)
+64 9 921 9940 (Fax)

Ana-Maria Fuertes

Cass Business School, City University of London ( email )

Faculty of Finance
106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom
+44 207 477 0186 (Phone)
+44 207 477 8881 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.city.ac.uk/people/academics/ana-maria-fuertes

Joelle Miffre (Contact Author)

Audencia Nantes School of Management ( email )

8 route de la Jonelière, BP 31222
Nantes Cedex 3, Cedex 3 44312
France

Audencia Business School ( email )

8 Road Joneliere
BP 31222
Nantes Cedex 3, 44312
France

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