Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements

51 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2018

See all articles by Malin Gardberg

Malin Gardberg

Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR)

Date Written: October 30, 2018

Abstract

Many currencies, especially those of countries with negative net foreign assets, tend to depreciate during times of financial turbulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the period 1/1997-6/2016, I show that the composition of net foreign assets matter for the exchange rate sensitivity to changes in global financial market risk tolerance, where debt financing increases it and equity financing reduces it. Thus, currencies of countries with large negative net external portfolio debt are more vulnerable to changes in financial market uncertainty than currencies with the equivalent net external equity. Ownership matters too, private net foreign debt liabilities heighten the exchange rate sensitivity much more than public. The relationship between banking sector risk intolerance, net external asset positions and exchange rates has, moreover, become stronger since the credit crisis.

Keywords: Exchange Rates, Excess Currency Returns, Net Foreign Assets, External Imbalances, Net Foreign Portfolio Debt, Financial Market Risk Tolerance, Panel Data

JEL Classification: F31, F32, G15, G20, C23

Suggested Citation

Gardberg, Malin, Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements (October 30, 2018). IFN Working Paper No. 1246. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3280929

Malin Gardberg (Contact Author)

Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) ( email )

Box 55665
Grevgatan 34, 2nd floor
Stockholm, SE-102 15
Sweden

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) ( email )

Burgemeester Oudlaan 50
3000 DR Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland 3062PA
Netherlands

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