The Balkans and Non-Military Security Threats – Quality Comparative Analyses of Resilience Capabilities Regarding Hybrid Threats

Security and Defense Quarterly, 2018, Volume 5, No. 22. (E-ISSN: 2544-994X)

26 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2018 Last revised: 17 Dec 2018

Date Written: October 10, 2018

Abstract

The contemporary security environment indicates non-conventional, asymmetric and hybrid security threats as potentially the most accurate threats to global and regional security. Conflict risks in the regional frame strongly depend on strategically aimed non-military, but hybrid acts. The great powers mostly attempt to achieve their own interests’ goals in fulfillment of self-orientated strategic dominance. The Balkan region is a crossroads of strongly exposed interest spheres of regional as well as global powers. The article aims to determine areas of influence in the Balkan States that could become targets of predominantly non-military but hybrid influences. Multi-Value Quality Comparative Analyses (mvQCA) of state power, stability and resilience capacities were used in the research. The methodology used was based on the approach with multi-valued sets of variables and conditions. A theoretical framework was based on contemporary theories of state power and hybrid warfare concept. Used databases were brought together from generated open source databases of approved international academic or think-tank organisations. Based on a hypothesis regarding hybrid security threats, a theoretical framework of understanding of power and analysing a wide spectra of databases, the article aims to contribute a rational and objective understanding of two main indicators: the potential to become a target and the resilience capacities of countries in the face of hybrid security threats. Its findings indicate that most countries in the Balkan region are potentially under unarmed influences and have very low resilience capabilities against possible hybrid influences. The conclusions reached help to clarify that the Balkan States are vulnerable to hybrid security threats.

Keywords: Un-Conventional Security, Hybrid Security Threats, Balkans, Quality Comparative Analyses, National Resilience Capacities

Suggested Citation

Mitrović, Miroslav, The Balkans and Non-Military Security Threats – Quality Comparative Analyses of Resilience Capabilities Regarding Hybrid Threats (October 10, 2018). Security and Defense Quarterly, 2018, Volume 5, No. 22. (E-ISSN: 2544-994X). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3280958

Miroslav Mitrović (Contact Author)

Strategic Research Institute ( email )

Neznanog junaka str. 38
Belgrade, 11000
Serbia

HOME PAGE: http://www.isi.mod.gov.rs

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