Voting Retrospectively: Critical Junctures and Party Identification

57 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2018 Last revised: 17 Aug 2019

See all articles by Cemal Eren Arbatli

Cemal Eren Arbatli

National Research University Higher School of Economics

David Gomtsyan

National Research University - Higher School of Economics

Date Written: June 17, 2019

Abstract

This paper provides evidence for retrospective voting in the very long-term by exploiting a unique quasi-natural experiment of history. We trace the origins of party identification to a critical juncture in the local history of Sasun, a mountainous region of the Ottoman Empire located in Eastern Turkey. Sasun received vital support from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) both during the Great Massacres against Armenians at the end of the 19th century and during the Armenian Genocide (1915-1917). With the help of the ARF, some of the survivors from Sasun were resettled in various villages in modern-day Armenia. Although the party was not active in Armenia during seven decades of Soviet rule, we find that villages with Sasun ancestry display substantially higher electoral support for the ARF than other villages. Evidence from first names of current residents and our field work suggest that this differential support can, at least in part, be explained by historical gratitude and sympathy for the party. We offer suggestive evidence to explain why this sympathy might have endured over generations.

Keywords: Partisanship, retrospective voting, refugee, migration, conflict, collective memory, Armenian Revolutionary Federation

JEL Classification: D72, J15, N45, Z13

Suggested Citation

Arbatli, Cemal Eren and Gomtsyan, David, Voting Retrospectively: Critical Junctures and Party Identification (June 17, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3282940 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3282940

Cemal Eren Arbatli

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

26 Shabolovka Street
1215
Moscow, 119049
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/erenarbatli/home

David Gomtsyan (Contact Author)

National Research University - Higher School of Economics ( email )

Moscow
Russia

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